.

0 (hodnocen0 x )

BK

Cambridge : Cambridge University, 2001

xxiii,515 s. : il.

ISBN 0-521-01068-3 (brož.)

Obsahuje grafy, tabulky, předmluvu, poznámky, rejstřík, údaje o autorovi a jeho fotografii

Bibliografie: s. 435-505

Ekologie sociální - rozbory - pojednání

Změny ekologické - pojednání

000095735

List of figures page xii // List of tables xviii // Preface xvii // Language and measures xix // Acknowledgements xxii // Permissions xxiv // Part I: The Litany // 1 Things are getting better 3 // The Litany 3 // Things are better - but not necessarily good 4 // Exaggeration and good management 5 // Fundamentals: trends 5 // Fundamentals: global trends 6 // Fundamentals: long-term trends 8 // Fundamentals: how is it important? 9 // Fundamentals: people 11 // Reality versus myths 12 // Reality: Worldwatch Institute 13 // Reality: World Wide Fund for Nature 16 // Reality: Greenpeace 17 // Reality: wrong bad statistics and economics 18 // Reality: water problems 19 // Reality: Pimentel and global health I 21 // Reality: Pimentel and global health II 24 // Reality versus rhetoric and poor predictions 21 // Reality 30 // Reality and morality 32 // 2 Why do we hear so much bad news? 34 // Research 35 // The file drawer and data massage 36 // Organizations 37 // The media 39 // Lopsided reality: sporadic but predictable 39 // Lopsided reality: bad news 40 // Lopsided reality: conflict and guilt 41 // The consequences 41 // Part II: Human welfare // 3 Measuring human welfare 45 // How many people on earth? 45 // The changing demographics 47 // Overpopulation 48 // 4 Life expectancy and health 50 // Life expectancy 50 // Life expectancy in the developing world 51 // Infant mortality 53 // Illness 55 // Conclusion 58 // 5 Food and hunger 60 // Malthus and everlasting hunger 60 // More food than ever 61 // Lower prices than ever 62 // The Green Revolution 62 // Relative or absolute improvement? 64 // Regional distribution: Africa 65 // Regional distribution: China 66 // Conclusion 67 // Is inflation-adjusted GDP a reasonable // measure of wealth? 68 // 6 Prosperity 70 // Poverty and distribution 71 // Ever greater inequality? 73 // Poorer still? 75 // More consumer goods 78 //

More education 81 // More leisure time 82 // More safety and security 84 // Fewer catastrophes and accidents 85 // 7 Conclusion to Part H: unprecedented // human prosperity 87 // Part III: Can human prosperity continue? // 8 Are we living on borrowed time? 91 // Resources - the foundation for welfare 91 // 9 Will we have enough food? 93 // At least grain per capita is declining 93 // Declining productivity 95 // Limits to yields? 96 // Biomass 99 // What about ordinary peasants? 100 // Do we still need the high growth? 100 // Grain stocks are dropping! 101 // What about China? 102 // Should we worry about erosion? 104 // What about fish? 106 // Conclusion 108 // 10 Forests - are we losing them? 110 // Forests and history 112 // Deforestation: a general view 112 // Deforestation: how much? 114 // How much forest? 115 // Conclusion 117 // 11 Energy 118 // We are a civilization built on energy 118 // Do we have enough energy to go on? 119 // The oil crisis 120 // How much oil left? 121 // Optimists and pessimists arguing 124 // Ever more oil available 125 // Other fossil energy sources 126 // Nuclear energy 128 // Renewable energy 129 // Solar energy 133 // Wind energy 134 // Storage and mobile consumption 135 // Conclusion 135 // 12 Non-energy resources 137 // The pessimists bet on resources running out and lost 137 // Falling prices 137 // Cement 138 // Aluminum 138 // Iron 140 // Copper 143 // Gold and silver 144 // Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium 145 // Zinc 145 // Other resources 146 // Why do we have ever more resources? 147 // Conclusion 148 // 13 Water 149 // How much water in the world? 149 // The three central problems 151 // Not enough water? 152 // Will it get worse in the future? 154 // Will we see increased conflict? 156 // Conclusion 157 // 14 Conclusion to Part III: continued prosperity 159 //

Part IV: Pollution: does it undercut human prosperity? // 15 Air pollution 163 // Air pollution in times past 163 // What is dangerous? 165 // Particles 167 // Lead 170 // SO2 172 // Ozone 173 // NOx 174 // CO 175 // And the developing world? Both growth and environment 175 // Conclusion 177 // 16 Acid rain and forest death 178 // 17 Indoor air pollution 182 // Indoor air pollution in the developing world 182 Indoor air pollution in the developed world 183 // 18 Allergies and asthma 185 // 19 Water pollution 189 // Oil pollution in the oceans 189 // Oil in the Gulf 191 // Exxon Valdez: still a catastrophe? 192 // Pollution in coastal waters 194 // Suffocation in coastal waters 195 // Health effects from fertilizer 201 // Pollution in rivers 202 // 20 Waste: running out of space? 206 // 21 Conclusion to Part IV: the pollution // burden has diminished 210 // Part V: Tomorrow’s problems // 22 Our chemical fears 215 // Cancer: death 217 // Cancer: incidence 222 // l-in-8 and other lifetime risks 223 // The fear of pesticides 226 // Establishing thresholds through risk analysis 226 // Pesticides and cancer 228 // Cancer in animal experiments 231 // Natural and synthetic pesticides 232 // Synthetic estrogens 236 // Synthetic estrogens: a fall in sperm quality 238 // If Organic farmers 240 // Synthetic estrogens: the “cocktail" effect 241 // Synthetic estrogens: breast cancer 242 // Synthetic estrogens: should we worry? 244 // Conclusion: should we use pesticides? 245 // 23 Biodiversity 249 // How many species are there? 249 // Is biodiversity important? 250 // How many go extinct? 251 // The claim of40,000 species 252 // A model backup 252 // What do we lose? 253 // Models and reality 253 // The biologists’ reaction 254 // Check the data 254 // The biologists’ response 256 // Conclusion: what are the consequences of seriously overstating the extinctions? 257 //

24 Global warming 258 // The basic greenhouse effect 259 // The long-term development of the climate 260 // The climate, 1856-2100 263 // How much does CO2 affect the temperature? 265 // How much does CO2 affect the temperature? // Particles 266 // How much does CO2 affect the temperature? // Water vapor 269 // How much does CO2 affect the temperature? // Clouds 270 // The ozone hole 273 // Are there other causes? 276 // Are the scenarios realistic? 278 // Are the scenarios realistic? The 40 new scenarios 280 Consequences: agriculture 287 // Consequences: sea level rise 289 // Consequences: human health 291 // Consequences: extreme weather 292 // Consequences: present and future weather 297 // The cost of warming 300 // The cost of cutting CO2 3 02 // Then what should we do? 305 // II The double dividend: improve the // environment and make money? 308 // Objections: cut CO2 and make money 312 // 1 Objections: the price of the future 313 // IB Objections: the fear of catastrophe 315 // Summing up 317 // More than meets the eye 318 // Conclusion: scares and sound policy 322 // Part VI: The Real State of the World // Predicament or progress? 327 // The Great Fable of the Litany 327 // The Real State of the World 328 // Yet we worry ever more 330 // Setting priorities and nsks 333 // Weighing risks 336 // The costs of the Litany 338 // Genetically modified foods - the // encapsulation of the Litany 342 // Caution when invoking the principle 348 // Continued progress 350 // Notes 353 // Bibliography 435 // Index 506